NCJ Number
151696
Date Published
1994
Length
113 pages
Annotation
This futures study, which examines the shape of urban law enforcement management in California, focuses on several subissues including the influence that community, availability of resources, and local government control will wield on law enforcement management.
Abstract
The futures study panel identified 10 probable trends, including, inter alia, percent of change in California demographics, level of regionalization of agencies and services, level of violent crime, level of civilian oversight of law enforcement, level of poverty, and emphasis on crime prevention versus enforcement. Some of the probable events that were incorporated into the analysis included statewide creation of regional governments, riots, restricted legal immigration to the U.S., legalization of drugs, discovery of a permanent one-time cure for alcohol and drug abuse, and development of a nonlethal weapon for police use. A cross- impact analysis was conducted, based on the assumption that each event takes place; the process requires an estimate of the change in probability of an event occurring based on the probability that each of the other events occurs. The study includes strategic and transition management plans to help achieve the normative scenario developed through the analysis. 6 tables, 22 figures, 27 notes, 25 references, and 7 appendixes