NCJ Number
198613
Date Published
December 2002
Length
16 pages
Annotation
This document discusses the link between criminal activity and long-term youth unemployment.
Abstract
The relationship between unemployment and crime has a long history but has not produced a consensus. There is a pattern of inconsistency in time series studies of unemployment and crime. The leading explanation for this is that unemployment increases the motivation to offend but reduces the opportunities for offending. School variables may play an important role in shaping the relationship between unemployment and crime. A model of the relationship between unemployment duration, schooling, and property crime is presented. The model is based on the consequences for an individual of continuing unemployment and the relative returns to property crime conditional on one’s education. It is argued that the longer the person is unemployed the higher the relative attractiveness of crime. Higher levels of education diminish the relative attractiveness of criminal activity through their effect on the returns of employment. The results support those that suggest that much of the inconsistency in studies of unemployment and crime seems to stem from poor conceptualization of the way in which unemployment influences crime. Simulations based on the models indicate that long term unemployment among young males has a substantial effect on property crime. It also suggests that the elimination of long term unemployment among males 15- to 24-years-old by direct job creation would result in close to a 7 percent reduction in property crime per year. If these individuals continued in formal education to the end of senior high school, the reduction in break, enter, and steal over the course of a year would amount to almost 15 percent. 6 figures, 4 tables, 12 notes, 24 references