Unemployment and Crime Rate Fluctuations in the Post-World War II United States: Statistical Time-Series Properties and Alternative Models (From Crime and Inequality, P 55-79, 1995, John Hagan and Ruth D. Peterson, eds. - See NCJ-157570)

• NCJ Number: 157573
• Author(s): K C Land; D Cantor; S T Russell
• Date Published: 1995
• Length: 25 pages
• Sale Source: Stanford University Press
• Publication Type: Survey
• Language: English
• Country: United States of America

Annotation

This chapter focuses on the temporal relationship between levels of and fluctuations in unemployment rates, and fluctuations in crime rates for the U.S. in the post-World War II period (the U- C relationship).

Abstract

This chapter updates the empirical analyses performance by K. C. Land and D. Kantor (1985), and responds to a critique of the Cantor-Land formulation put forth by C. Hale and D. Sabbagh (1991). The findings of the present analyses show that the forms of the regression models specified by Cantor and Land are statistically acceptable and that, using annual time series data from 1946 through 1990, these models remain successful in identifying and estimating both the crime opportunity and crime motivation effects previously postulated. Other related research summarized here demonstrated that these effects are evident across age- and race- specific population categories, are not mediated by imprisonment or general deterrence processes, are generally consistent with evidence from microlevel studies, and are consonant with studies based on monthly unemployment and crime rate time series. 1 appendix