NCJ Number
189988
Date Published
August 2001
Length
168 pages
Annotation
This study used a mixed qualitative-quantitative approach in examining the deterrent effect of drug enforcement operations on cocaine trafficking for the period 1991-1999.
Abstract
For the purposes of this study, a drug enforcement operation had a deterrent effect if drug smugglers were displaced from a previously preferred route/method into a less desirable smuggling route/method, thereby increasing their risk of being caught and other costs associated with smuggling. The increased costs presumably would be passed on to consumers. Interviews were conducted with a purposive sample of high-level cocaine smugglers in Federal prisons. Interviewers were especially interested in learning how smugglers assessed risk and how these factors varied by method and role of the smuggler. Based on these interviews, the researchers concluded that the most effective deterrents were the threat of informants, whether cooperating defendants or confidential informants; prison terms of 25 years or longer; and the possibility of being prosecuted under dry conspiracy charges (i.e., they need not be caught in possession of the drug to be convicted). The interviewers also found that smugglers did not perceive much of a threat on the water, because they believed that law enforcement lacked the necessary ability to spot them; if spotted, they were certain that law enforcement agents could not catch them; and if caught, the use of sophisticated compartments would make it virtually impossible for the drugs to be located. This finding indicated the need for enhanced interdiction capability on the water. The study also conducted a quantitative assessment of the impact of counterdrug enforcement on cocaine prices in the United States and on displacing drug trafficking activity from one transportation route and method to another. Based on these analyses, source-zone interdiction operations and the arrest or death of major drug traffickers apparently had significant effects on increasing cocaine prices in the United States. The impact of the source-zone interdiction operations was likely due to success in temporarily reducing the supply of cocaine to the United States. The positive effect of operations Hard Line, Border/Gulf Shield, and Conjuntos II on cocaine prices implied that these operations had a significant impact as well, and they either caused traffickers to increase their fees and/or reduced the supply of cocaine to U.S. markets. Although the remaining transit and arrival-zone interdiction operations examined did not have a statistically significant impact on cocaine prices in the United States, many exhibited an impact on traffickers' behavior. Recommendations are offered for further research. 15 figures, 3 tables, 36 references, and appended interview guide and statistical methodology