NCJ Number
96060
Date Published
1984
Length
34 pages
Annotation
The efficacy of State firearm control laws is examined by analyzing deterrence variables and social factors as well as the impact of the 1968 Gun Control Act (GCA).
Abstract
Studies of firearm control laws do not appear to have statistically significant lower rates of homicides, robberies, or aggravated assaults than States without such laws. An analysis of the 1968 GCA -- using a single equation model that controls for various socioeconomic factors, the cumulative stock of hanguns, and an index of violent crimes -- shows a significant increase in handgun purchase since the Act's enactment. However, the results do not mean the Act is a failure; rather, it could be the Act reduces the handgun acquisition rate. Moreover, these figures also need to be examined in terms of all elements of the criminal justice system, including enforcement, judicial decisions, expense, and handgun availability. A structural model designed with these issues in mind indicates the GCA did not reduce the homicide rate and that yearly handgun purchases are not significantly related to homicide rates. If research could establish that an increase in gun availability causes an increase in violent crime, then decisionmakers need only focus on reducing access to firearms. Further research, using theoretical modeling, should focus on determining the cost of each proposal for preventing criminal behavior. Tabular data, 46 footnotes, and the structural model are provided.