NCJ Number
30857
Journal
Law and Society Review Volume: 9 Issue: 4 Dated: (SUMMER 1975) Pages: 581-611
Date Published
1975
Length
31 pages
Annotation
MATHEMATICAL MODEL SIMPLE ENOUGHT TO MAKE APPROXIMATE QUANTITATIVE ESTIMATES BASED ON AVAILABLE STATISTICAL INFORMATION APPLIED TO CONDITIONS IN NEW YORK CITY AND NEW YORK STATE.
Abstract
THIS PAPER PRESENTS A QUANTITATIVE MODEL FOR THE CRIMINAL SYSTEM THAT ELUCIDATES THE EFFECT OF SENTENCING RATE AND PRISON STAY ON THE OVERALL CRIME RATE AND YIELDS QUANTITATIVE PREDICTIONS FOR POLICY DECISIONS. THE MODEL IS BASED ON MEASURABLE STATISTICAL PARAMETERS, WHICH ARE EITHER AVAILABLE OR CAN BE MEASURED. THESE ARE: THE DETAILED CRIME RATES AS REPORTED BY THE FBI, THE FRACTION OF REPORTED CRIMES WHICH LEAD TO A CONVICTION, NUMBER OF CRIMINALS COMMITTED TO PRISON FOR EACH TYPE OF CRIME, TOTAL NUMBER OF CRIMINALS IN PRISON, THEIR AVERAGE STAY IN PRISON, AND THE FRACTION OF CRIMINALS CONVICTED WHO ARE FIRST-TIME OFFENDERS. THE PAPER ANALYZES THE PRESENT STATE OF CRIME CONTROL IN NEW YORK. BY SIMPLE QUANTITATIVE ARGUMENTS IT INDICATES THAT THERE IS A STRONG CORRELATION BETWEEN INCREASED CRIME RATES AND RECENT CHANGES IN THE CRIMINAL JUSTICE SYSTEM WHICH SHARPLY REDUCED THE CHANCES OF A CRIMINAL GOING TO PRISON AS WELL AS THE LENGTH OF HIS STAY THERE. IT SHOWS THAT ONE OF THE MAIN EFFECTS OF PRISON IS SIMPLY TEMPORARY INCAPACITATION. IT SHOWS THAT ANY FACTOR THAT DECREASES THE CHANCE OF A CRIMINAL TO GET CONVICTED HAS A DIRECT EFFECT ON INCREASING CRIME RATE IN AN ALMOST PROPORTIONAL WAY. THE AUTHORS SUBMIT THAT A POLICY OF UNIFORM PRISON SENTENCES FOR CONVICTED CRIMINALS COULD UNDER PRESENT CONDITIONS REDUCE SAFETY CRIME BY A FACTOR OF FOUR TO FIVE. (AUTHOR ABSTRACT)