NCJ Number
238452
Date Published
February 2012
Length
20 pages
Annotation
This study examined the impact on property and violent crime rates in New South Wales, Australia, of the probability of arrest, the probability of imprisonment, and the duration of imprisonment.
Abstract
Based on data analysis, the study estimated that 1-percent increases in arrest rates for property and violent crime produced 0.10-percent and 0.19-percent decreases in property and violent crime, respectively. If the 1-percent increase in arrest rates is sustained, the long-term effect is estimated to be 0.14 and 0.30-percent decreases for property and violent crime, respectively. The short-term elasticities for imprisonment probabilities were smaller, (-0.09 and -0.11, as were the long-term elasticities (-0.12 and -0.17), for property and violent crime, respectively. There was no evidence that increases in the length of imprisonment had any short-term or long-term impact on crime rates. The findings indicate that improving the likelihood of arrest and imprisonment for the commission of property and violent crime is an effective deterrent to crime. The implication of these findings for policy is that measures which increase the probability of arrest and imprisonment for property and violent crimes will reduce their commission rates. This suggests that increases in criminal justice resources and their more efficient allocation, along with improved investigative techniques, can translate into reductions in property and violent crime. The study adopted a dynamic panel data model with fixed Local Government Area and time effects in data collection and analysis. It adjusted for potential confounders of the relationship between arrest, imprisonment, and crime. The first-differenced generalized method of moments was used to estimate the model parameters. 4 figures, 4 tables, and 57 references