NCJ Number
223930
Journal
Journal of Criminal Justice Volume: 36 Issue: 4 Dated: August 2008 Pages: 293-300
Date Published
August 2008
Length
8 pages
Annotation
This article suggests various ways in which criminal justice systems can apply dynamic systems simulation analysis (DSSA), which is an analytical technique that allows for the modeling of complex, nonlinear systems.
Abstract
DSSA is a technique for the computational modeling of complex, nonlinear systems in order to understand the ways in which these systems function, as well as the consequences resulting from the interconnectedness of system states. DSSA shows how changes in one part of a system impact other system parts. DSSA is conducted in a two-stage process. In the first stage, the system’s structure is codified in a series of differential and difference equations. These equations are initialized with values based on actual data that are tracked over time. The baseline or retrospective models are constructed in order to reproduce historical population dynamics. The second stage of the modeling process involves simulating the system forward in time. Models can be used to evaluate the effects of changes already in place but not fully realized, and they can be used to estimate system behavior under a variety of policy scenarios. Although relatively few researchers use DSSA in analyzing criminal justice processes, this technique lends itself to the analysis of specific criminal justice problems, such as the resource impact of building a new custodial facility or a change in a correctional system‘s classification scheme. DSSA can also be used to examine more broad-based criminal justice problems, such as how the use of urban police resources may change upon the adoption of a policy of decriminalizing prostitution and the consequences of drug decriminalization/legalization. This article’s primary example of a criminal justice application of DSSA is an evaluation of the effectiveness of sentencing policy reform in California from the perspective of public safety and selective incapacitation. 1 figure, 9 notes and 92 references