Crime Prevention Effects of Arrest and Imprisonment - Evidence From Multiple Cross-Section Analyses

• NCJ Number: 88423
• Author(s): T F Pogue
• Date Published: 1983
• Length: 51 pages
• Grant Number(s): 79-NI-AX-0015
• Sponsoring Agency: National Institute of Justice (NIJ); US Dept of Justice NIJ Pub
• Sale Source: National Institute of Justice/; NCJRS Photocopy Services
• Publication Type: Statistics
• Language: English
• Country: United States of America

Annotation

Arrest and imprisonment sanctions have little effect on property crime rates.

Abstract

The study hypothesizes that individuals' decisions regarding crime depend on perceived sanction levels that, in turn, depend on sanction levels realized in past periods. The study's econometric results support this view. Although crime rates appear to be little affected by sanction levels, they certainly are not random phenomena. They are related to a number of exogeneous economic and demographic variables accounting for a major share of observed variation in property crime rates. In particular, rising unemployment accounts for about 10 percent of the 1970-77 average increase in burglary rates and about 15 percent of the average increase in larceny rates. Thus, burglary and larceny could probably be controlled as much by reducing unemployment as by increasing the risk and severity of criminal sanctions. Footnotes and about 30 references are included. (Author abstract modified)