NCJ Number
70416
Date Published
1979
Length
36 pages
Annotation
This paper examines the consequences of nuclear proliferation, and assuming that a serious nuclear incident has occurred, examines the possible effects of such an incident.
Abstract
The paper assumes that by 1990, more than a dozen countries will have acquired a nuclear weapons capability and that many others will be able to do so in a brief period. Because the world's energy situation has become more critical, fossil fuels are more expensive and scarce, an increased world population is straining the world's food supply, and the gap between rich and poor nations has widened, terrorism is likely to intensify and spread. Whether or not terrorists would use nuclear weapons depends on such variables as the motives of the terrorist group, the attitudes of individual terrorists, and their objectives. Assuming that an act of nuclear terrorism has occurred, some of the broader consequences that might occur include increased security at all nuclear facilities, a crackdown on all dissidents, a possibility of further nuclear terrorism, pressure to increase international cooperation in the area of security, and intensified disarmament and nuclear energy debates. Threats of unilateral preemptive action, further nuclear proliferation, and renewed attention to old strategic problems might also occur. Footnotes are given.