APPLICATION OF MODELING AND SIMULATION IN THE ASSESSMENT OF PROGRAM ALTERNATIVES TO INCARCERATION

• NCJ Number: 54105
• Author(s): D D SMITH
• Date Published: 1977
• Length: 13 pages
• Sale Source: National Institute of Justice/
• Language: English
• Country: United States of America
• Note: PRESENTED AT THE NATIONAL CONFERENCE ON CRIMINAL JUSTICE EVALUATION, WASHINGTON, D C, FEBRUARY 22, 1977

Annotation

POSTEVALUATION RECOMMENDATIONS REGARDING THE ACTIVITIES OF THE TEXAS YOUTH COUNCIL'S RESIDENTIAL CONTRACT PROGRAM AND THE USE OF MODELING AND COMPUTER SIMULATION TO TEST THEIR IMPACT ARE THE FOCUS OF THIS REPORT.

Abstract

SINCE ITS START IN EARLY 1974, THE RESIDENTIAL CONTRACT PROGRAM (RCP) HAS CONTRACTED WITH OVER 60 PRIVATE CHILD CARE ORGANIZATIONS; ONE OF THE RCP GOALS IS TO DIVERT 20 TO 25 PERCENT OF THE YOUTH COUNCIL COMMITMENTS TO THESE CONTRACTING AGENCIES. AMONG OTHER THINGS, THE EVALUATION INDICATED THAT THIS GOAL HAS NOT BEEN MET, AND RECOMMENDATIONS WERE GENERATED IN AN EFFORT TO RECTIFY THE SITUATION. MODELING AND COMPUTER SIMULATION WERE THEN USED TO GAUGE THE PROBABLE PROGRAM IMPACT OF ADOPTING THE RECOMMENDATIONS. SEVERAL OBSERVATIONS WERE MADE THROUGHOUT THE COURSE OF THE STUDY AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE MODELS, THEIR SIMULATIONS, AND DATA ANALYSIS. IN CASES WHERE DATA IS NOT GENERALLY AVAILABLE, OR ITS RELIABILITY IS SUSPECT, THE SIMULATION RESULTS HAVE DIMINISHED USE. NOT ALL RECOMMENDATIONS LEND THEMSELVES TO A SIMULATION TEST; ONLY RECOMMENDATIONS THAT CAN BE QUANTIFIED IN TERMS OF THE SYSTEM CAN BE TESTED. ALSO, THE USE OF TWO DIFFERENT SIMULATION APPROACHES IN TANDEM IS A USEFUL METHOD AND COMPUTER SIMULATION PROVED TO BE A USEFUL TOOL IN IDENTIFYING THE IMPACT OF PROPOSED RECOMMENDATIONS, AN ADDITIONAL BENEFIT IS THE ABILITY TO TEST QUANTIFIED GOALS AND OBJECTIVES. TABULAR DATA AND REFERENCES ARE INCLUDED. (KBL)