This document is the fourth review and revalidation report of the Prisoner Assessment Tool Targeting Estimated Risk and Needs (PATTERN); it analyzes recidivism outcomes, assesses proportions of change in risk scores, and provides extra information on individual items by race and ethnic group; and it is organized into the following sections: methodology, including data and sample, sample characteristics, and analytic plan; predictive validity; dynamic validity; racial and ethnic neutrality; discussion and conclusion; references; and four appendixes.
This document is the fourth review and revalidation report of the First Step Act Risk Assessment Tool. The First Step Act of 2018 (FSA) mandated the development and implementation of a risk and needs assessment system in the Federal Bureau of Prisons (FBOP) and required that the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) review, validate, and publicly release the risk and needs assessment system on an annual basis. The current report analyzes a subsequent cohort of FY 2019 FBOP releasees and evaluates the Prisoner Assessment Tool Targeting Estimated Risk and Needs (PATTERN) for its predictive accuracy, dynamic validity, and racial and ethnic neutrality, as mandated by the FSA. This study analyzes one-, two-, and three-year recidivism outcomes, assesses what proportions of change in risk scores and levels are influenced by the current age item, and provides additional descriptive information on individual items, risk scores and levels, and outcomes by race and ethnic group. Finally, this report provides updates on the actions taken by NIJ and DOJ in the past year and the ongoing efforts to review and improve PATTERN. The National Institute of Justice (NIJ) contracted with Dr. Rhys Hester and Dr. Ryan Labrecque as consultants for the annual review and revalidation of PATTERN. While the findings continue to indicate PATTERN’s accuracy across the five racial and ethnic groups analyzed, there remains evidence that the instruments predict differently across those groups, including overprediction of risk of Black, Hispanic, and Asian males and females, relative to White individuals, on the general recidivism tools.