NCJ Number
191377
Date Published
2001
Length
5 pages
Annotation
This article examines the status of the political situation in Yugoslavia, including the situation in Serbia; the obstacles to democratization that remain; the consequences of unresolved relations among Serbia, Montenegro, Bosnia, Kosovo, and the West; and the chances of renewed civil war.
Abstract
The Serbian people have finally chosen to rid themselves of Slobodan Milosevic, and as a result, Brussels and Washington share a renewed hope that the Balkans will be able to re-enter the civilized community of European nations; however, a closer look at events gives cause for pessimism about the chances of rapid stabilization in Serbia, Kosovo, and Montenegro. Most troublesome is the fact that key portfolios have ultimately remained in the hands of Milosevic's party, namely, internal affairs, foreign affairs, energy, health, economic, and finance. Unless this situation changes, Serbia will likely turn at best into just another nominal democracy in which elections are held and the faces of representatives may change, but the real decisionmakers remain the same as before the revolution. Further, the opposition may itself become a victim of gross internal tensions. Currently, nothing has happened to the person most responsible for the atrocities committed in the former Yugoslavia in the name of national sovereignty. It is not beyond reason to posit a revival of Milosevic's fortunes, given the fact that he has survived the collapse of Communism and Yugoslavia and is still an active politician in Belgrade. If he can survive along with his personnel, assets, and political infrastructure, should he decide to wage war again, then could NATO face him down once more with the same effect?