NCJ Number
191806
Journal
Nonproliferation Review Volume: 7 Issue: 2 Dated: Summer 2000 Pages: 157-174
Date Published
2000
Length
18 pages
Annotation
This article analyzes incidents involving chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear acts by terrorists in 1999.
Abstract
Assessing the threat of terrorism involving chemical, biological, radiological, or nuclear (CBRN) materials, often referred to as “weapons of mass destruction” or WMD, remains difficult despite an extensive literature base in terrorism studies and WMD studies. In an effort to bridge this gap, staff members at the Center for Nonproliferation Studies (CNS) at the Monterey Institute of International Studies, directed by Dr. Jonathan B. Tucker, in 1997 began compiling a Database of Worldwide Incidents 1990-Present Involving Sub-National Actors and Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear Materials (hereafter, the Monterey WMD Terrorism Database). The Monterey WMD Terrorism Database included 175 entries for 1999, of which 104 occurred in the United States. The total number for the year was important because as of February 23, 2000, the database contained 687 incidents since 1990. Therefore, the 175 incidents that occurred in 1999 represent over 25 percent of the total. The geographical distribution of the 175 incidents was also noteworthy. Of the 175 incidents, 104 or 59 percent, occurred in the United States. The incidents that occurred in each region of the world would appear to contradict the conclusion that the threat is most pressing in the United States. The overwhelming trend in the United States was one of hoaxes. These are disruptive, but are unlikely to result in casualties. The types of agents used in each incident were significant. Apart from anthrax cases in the United States (83), the next most common agent was tear gas, of which there were 27 incidents in 1999. It is notable that apart from U.S. anthrax incidents, there were only 14 cases worldwide involving biological agents, about a fifth of the number involved chemical agents. Most of the agents employed were low-end non-warfare or household agents. Looking at motivation, ideological motivations accounted for about half of all incidents, approximately the same as criminally motivated incidents. The data for 1999 do not suggest a significant trend among sub-national actors towards using WMD materials to cause mass casualties.