NCJ Number
151704
Date Published
1994
Length
140 pages
Annotation
This futures study focused on the impact that changing demographics will have on the role of medium-sized police agencies in California by the year 2004.
Abstract
The study panel identified 10 trends that are likely to increase over the next decade: (1) immigration, (2) crime rates, (3) demand for police service, (4) institutional reliance, (5) revenues to local government, (6) violent crime, (7) community involvement, (8) public-private partnerships, (9) cultural segregation, and (10) available technologies. In addition, several highly probable events were incorporated into the analysis. These included a major military conflict, large-scale suburban riot, ban on gun sales, ban on immigration, large-scale local tax increase, military police force, legislated regionalization of police services, service user fees, mandated privatization of law enforcement, and a resident officer program. The normative scenario developed through the analysis recommends the creation of a community-based mechanism for determining service priorities and directing police functions. This paper presents strategic and transition management plans designed to implement that scenario. 8 tables, 22 figures, 18 notes, 13 references, and 7 appendixes