NCJ Number
206661
Date Published
May 2003
Length
25 pages
Annotation
This report presents a forecast for West Virginia's juvenile corrections population for the years 2002 to 2013.
Abstract
The forecast was developed through the use of the Wizard 2000 projection software. This computerized simulation model mimics the flow of offenders through the State's juvenile corrections system over a 10-year forecast horizon and produces monthly projections for key offender groups. For the simulation model to work to its full potential, the information supplied to the model must accurately describe the population currently confined and all the commitments and releases from the system for a previous 1-year period. This report presents the statistics used to generate the juvenile forecast. The data indicate that between 1997 and 2002, West Virginia's juvenile corrections population increased by an average of 6.6 percent per year. The number of juveniles committed to corrections increased by an average of 2.6 percent per year between 1992 and 2001. Although the majority of commitments were White males, the percentage of Black males committed to corrections was six times greater than the percentage of Black males in the general State juvenile population. Property offenses continued to compose the majority of offenses committed by juveniles who were confined in juvenile correctional facilities. The majority of juveniles committed to correctional facilities in 2001 were charged with only one offense. The average length-of-stay for juveniles released in 2001 was 9.7 months. The simulation model projected that if current trends continue unchanged, the juvenile corrections population will increase to 222 by the end of 2007 and 279 by the end of 2013. 7 tables and 13 graphs