NCJ Number
212122
Date Published
May 2003
Length
25 pages
Annotation
This report presents a statistical juvenile corrections forecast for West Virginia for the years 2002 through 2013 and presents a description of the methodology and model used for the analysis.
Abstract
Predicting future juvenile corrections populations helps policymakers plan for future needs. The juvenile population forecast presented in this report was prepared using the Wizard 2000 simulation model, which uses a technique compatible with the stochastic (or probability) entity simulation model. Data included current juvenile corrections population data provided by juvenile correctional facilities and juvenile probation officers. Current juvenile population trend analysis indicates that the West Virginia juvenile corrections population grew an average of 6.6 percent per year between the years 1997 and 2002 and then increased an average of 2.6 percent per year between 1992 and 2001. Most juveniles within the correctional system were charged with property offenses such as burglary and theft. The majority of the 204 juveniles committed to corrections in 2001 were charged with 1 offense and the average detention length for juveniles released in 2001 was 9.7 months. The forecast analysis indicates that if these trends continue unchanged, by the end of 2013 the West Virginia juvenile corrections population will grow to 279 juveniles. Recommendations are offered concerning the use and production of future forecasts. Tables, graphs