NCJ Number
9811
Date Published
1971
Length
15 pages
Annotation
DATA EXAMINED TO TEST THE 'MERCURY' THEORY WHICH ARGUES THAT A REDUCTION IN CRIME IN D.C. WOULD RESULT IN A CORRESPONDING CRIME INCREASE IN THE NEARBY SUBURBS.
Abstract
TO TEST THIS THEORY DATA ON CRIMES KNOWN TO THE POLICE HAVE BEEN GATHERED FOR THE CITY AND FOR THE SUBURBAN AREAS. ACCORDING TO THIS COLLECTED DATA, EVIDENCE DOES NOT SUPPORT THE 'MERCURY' THEORY. ALTHOUGH CRIME DID RISE IN THE SURROUNDING SUBURBS DURING THE PERIOD UNDER INVESTIGATION, THE RISE DID NOT CORRESPOND PROPORTIONATELY TO THE DECREASE IN THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA. IT WAS ALSO FOUND THAT THE HIGHEST INCREASE IN REPORTED INDEX CRIME OCCURRED IN THE SUBURBS ACROSS THE POTOMAC AND NOT IN THOSE WHICH SHARE LONG BORDERS WITH THE DISTRICT. THIS REPORT, HOWEVER, SHOULD NOT BE ASSUMED TO BE THE DEFINITIVE ANSWER SINCE VARIATIONS EXISTED IN REPORTING TECHNIQUES, AND NATURE OF SOME OF THE DATA IS LIMITED.