NCJ Number
100633
Date Published
Unknown
Length
605 pages
Annotation
This research examined the probability and timing of recidivism for violent offenses by over 13,000 boys in the 1958 Philadelphia birth cohort.
Abstract
The targeted offenses were classified as ''very violent'' (criminal homicides, forcible rapes, robberies, and aggravated assaults) and ''violent'' (simple assaults and nonrape sex offenses). Offenses were also classified in terms of injury to the victim. Three delinquent classifications were examined with respect to several recidivism models, and the relative influence of a wide array of risk factors was assessed. Individual and aggregate prerecidivism prediction accuracy were also analyzed. Consistency in findings were compared across two subsets of the delinquents, and aggregate recidivism forecasts were prepared through young adulthood. Major findings converged across the very violent, violent, and injurious delinquent classifications. Black juveniles exhibited a decreasing risk of recidivating the longer they refrained from violent or injurious conduct. White youth experienced a comparatively low recidivism risk over time between their first and second offenses, the only transition which could be examined. Overall, few risk factors influenced recidivism, regardless of the model used. The prediction of dangerous conduct was not reliable. Implications of the findings are drawn. Appendixes detail the methodology. 110-item bibliography, tabular data, and figures.