NCJ Number
44774
Journal
Crime and Delinquency Volume: 24 Issue: 1 Dated: (JANUARY 1978) Pages: 49-58
Date Published
1978
Length
10 pages
Annotation
THE RELIABILITY OF RESEARCH FINDINGS ON THE PREDICTION OF VIOLENT BEHAVIOR IS ASSESSED, AND PUBLIC POLICY IMPLICATIONS ARE CONSIDERED.
Abstract
GROWING PUBLIC CONCERN ABOUT VIOLENT CRIME HAS CAUSED PROFESSIONALS TO INTENSIFY THEIR EFFORTS TO DISCOVER CAUSES OF CRIME, TO DEVELOP TECHNIQUES FOR PREDICTING INDIVIDUAL VIOLENT BEHAVIOR, AND TO ENACT PUBLIC POLICY TO CONTROL VIOLENT OFFENSES. A REVIEW OF RESEARCH BY SOCIOLOGISTS, PSYCHIATRISTS, AND LAWYERS INDICATES THAT THE ABILITY TO PREDICT VIOLENT BEHAVIOR STATISTICALLY OR BY CLINICAL EVALUATION IS AS YET FAR FROM PERFECT. THERE IS A TENDENCY IN RESEARCH STUDIES TO OVERPREDICT THE LIKELIHOOD THAT AN INDIVIDUAL WILL ENGAGE IN VIOLENT BEHAVIOR. DESPITE THE IMPERFECTION OF PREDICTIVE METHODS, POLICY IN THE AREAS OF MENTAL HEALTH AND CRIMINAL JUSTICE REFLECTS THE SUPPOSITION THAT PSYCHOLOGISTS AND PSYCHIATRISTS ARE ABLE TO PREDICT WHO WILL BE PHYSICALLY VIOLENT. IT IS NOTED THAT PUBLIC POLICY IS INFLUENCED AS MUCH BY PUBLIC MOOD AND POLITICAL CONSIDERATIONS AS BY EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE OF CRIME CAUSATION AND CONTROL. EVEN IF PREDICTIVE VARIABLES ARE GREATLY REFINED, MORAL AND ETHICAL ISSUES INHERENT IN ANY ATTEMPT TO BALANCE INDIVIDUAL RIGHTS AND THE RIGHTS OF SOCIETY WILL CONTINUE TO IMPINGE UPON ATTEMPTS TO PREDICT AND CONTROL VIOLENCE. (AUTHOR ABSTRACT MODIFIED).