NCJ Number
119359
Date Published
1989
Length
20 pages
Annotation
Separate time-series data on arrests for murder, rape, robbery, aggravated assault, and firearms violations between 1857 and 1980 in Philadelphia form the basis of this analysis of long-term patterns in violent crime in the city.
Abstract
Results showed that overall violent crime first rose gently from the early 1860's to the early 1920's and then role sharply and nearly continuously from 1960 to 1980. However, patterns differed among the specific types of criminal violence. Murder fluctuated from 1857 through 1940, rose steeply from 1960 to the early 1970's and then declined rapidly. In contrast, rape and aggravated assault rose through the first quarter of the 20th century but behaved differently over the last 2 decades, with rape decreasing and then increasing and aggravated assault generally rising. The divergent patterns indicate that violent crimes vary and require specific but integrated explanations. In addition, a comparison with Boston data show different patterns in the two cities. Suggestions for future research, table, figures, and reference notes.