Is Victimization Chronic? A Bayesian Analysis of Multinomial Missing Data

• NCJ Number: 95228
• Author(s): J B Kadane
• Date Published: 1983
• Length: 31 pages
• Grant Number(s): 81-IJ-CX-0087
• Sponsoring Agency: National Institute of Justice (NIJ); US Dept of Justice NIJ Pub
• Corporate Author: Carnegie Mellon University
• Sale Source: National Institute of Justice/; NCJRS Photocopy Services
• Publication Type: Survey
• Language: English
• Country: United States of America

Annotation

Using Bayesian methods, this paper analyzes a simple data set on successive criminal victimization drawn from the National Crime Survey to determine if victimization is chronic.

Abstract

Study data came from interviews conducted 6 months apart in a rotation design. Bayesian methods were used to to analyze the data and to explicitly account for the fact that not all the intended interviews could be conducted. The Bayesian approach was computationally feasible for some, but not all, of the calculations. Study results indicate that victimization is chronic, in that there is a factor of about 3.7 greater odds of a household once victimized being victimized again. A deeper analysis of victimization would look for household characteristics that explain victimization, in the sense that, given those characteristics, victimization is not chronic. Socioeconomic status, or some surrogate of it, might be a good first variable to use. Appendixes discuss the computational methods, and a list of 10 references are supplied.