UNEMPLOYMENT AND THE ALLOCATION OF TIME BY CRIMINALS TECHNICAL REPORT

• NCJ Number: 59669
• Author(s): D C WELLER; M K BLOCK; F C NOLD
• Date Published: 1978
• Length: 23 pages
• Grant Number(s): 77-NI-99-0071
• Sponsoring Agency: US Dept of Justice; US Dept of Justice NIJ Pub
• Corporate Author: Hoover Institution
• Sale Source: National Institute of Justice/
• Language: English
• Country: United States of America
• Note: EARLIER VERSION PRESENTED IN SEMINAR AT STANFORD

Annotation

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN UNEMPLOYMENT AND CRIMINAL BEHAVIOR IS EXAMINED BOTH THEORETICALLY AND BY APPLYING AN ECONOMETRIC MODEL TO A RANDOM SAMPLE OF 69 CONVICTED CRIMINALS FROM LOS ANGELES COUNTY, CALIF.

Abstract

THE ECONOMETRIC MODEL IS BASED ON ASSUMPTIONS ABOUT THE INDIVIDUAL'S ASSESSMENTS OF RISKS, PREFERENCES, COSTS, AND RETURNS IN THE CONTEXT OF RATIONAL CHOICE OF TIME ALLOCATION. THE MODEL POSTULATES THAT EACH INDIVIDUAL TRIES TO MAXIMIZE UTILITY BY ALLOCATING TIME BETWEEN PRODUCTIVE ACTIVITY AND LEISURE, AND BY ALLOCATING PRODUCTIVE TIME BETWEEN LEGAL AND ILLEGAL ACTIVITIES. THE WAGE EARNED IS THE REWARD FOR PRODUCTIVE ACTIVITY, AND EXPECTED MONETARY RETURNS OR IMPRISONMENT ARE THE REWARDS OR COSTS FOR ILLEGAL ACTIVITIES. ESTIMATES BASED ON THIS MODEL USED PRISON, PAROLE, AND PROBATION REPORTS TO DETERMINE OFFENDERS' PERSONAL CHARACTERISTICS, EMPLOYMENT, INCOME, AND ASSETS. OTHER DATA USED WERE LOS ANGELES COUNTY'S UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, NUMBER OF ARRESTS FOR PART I CRIMES, DOLLAR AMOUNTS STOLEN IN THE COUNTY IN PART I CRIMES, AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS IN THE COUNTY, AND THE COUNTY'S IMPRISONMENT RATE IN COMPARISON TO THE NUMBER OF COMPLAINTS FILED. DATA WAS COLLECTED OVER 3,227 3 MONTH PERIODS. RESULTS, IN GENERAL, CONFIRMED THE MODEL'S EXPECTATIONS. AN INCREASE IN AVERAGE LEGAL EARNINGS INCREASED THE PROBABILITY THAT AN INDIVIDUAL WOULD BE EMPLOYED. HIGH REGIONAL UNEMPLOYMENT REDUCED THE CHANCES BOTH OF SEEKING AND OF FINDING EMPLOYMENT. ONLY THE LOCAL ARREST RATE DID NOT HAVE AN EFFECT ON CRIMINAL BEHAVIOR. INDIVIDUALS WITH DISHONORABLE MILITARY DISCHARGES OR PRIOR ARREST RECORDS HAD A HIGHER PREFERENCE FOR ILLEGAL ACTIVITY, PERHAPS BECAUSE THEY HAD MORE DIFFICULTY FINDING JOBS. INTELLIGENCE AND EDUCATION WERE UNRELATED TO CHOICE OF ACTIVITY. RESULTS SUPPORTED THE HYPOTHESIS THAT LEGAL AND ILLEGAL ACTIVITY ARE TWO SIDES OF THE SAME ALLOCATIVE DECISION. DURING THE SAMPLE PERIOD, THE MARKET FOR CRIMINAL ACTIVITY GREW STEADILY MORE LUCRATIVE, RESULTING IN DIFFICULTY IN SEPARATING EFFECTS OF DIFFERENT VARIABLES. FURTHER RESEARCH SHOULD RESOLVE POTENTIAL DATA BIAS PROBLEMS. NOTES AND TABLES PRESENTING DEFINITIONS OF VARIABLES AND DATA INCLUDING ESTIMATED CORRELATION COEFFICIENTS, STANDARD ERRORS AND T-VALUES ARE INCLUDED. (CFW)