Understanding Why Crime Fell in the 1990s: Four Factors that Explain the Decline and Six that Do Not

• NCJ Number: 241507
• Journal: Journal of Economic Perspectives Volume: 18 Issue: 1 Dated: Winter 2004 Pages: 163-198
• Author(s): Steven D. Levitt
• Date Published: 2004
• Length: 36 pages
• Sponsoring Agency: National Science Foundation
• Publication Format: Article
• Publication Type: Research Paper
• Language: English
• Country: United States of America

Annotation

This report examines why crime declined in the 1990s.

Abstract

This report concludes that four factors collectively explain the entire drop in crime: increases in the number of police, increases in the size of the prison population, the waning of the crack epidemic, and the legalization of abortion in the 1970s. Other common explanations for declining crime appear far less important. The factors identified are much less successful in explaining fluctuations in crime in the preceding two decades. The real question at hand is not why crime fell in the 1990s, but rather, why crime did not begin falling earlier. An additional conclusion from this analysis is that the simplistic accounts of why crime fell offered by so-called experts to the media can be misleading. Of the eight reasons most frequently cited in newspapers, this report concludes that only three of the factors are truly relevant to the decline in crime. Tables, figures, and references