NCJ Number
59530
Date Published
1979
Length
450 pages
Annotation
PROJECTIONS OF THE SOCIAL, ECONOMIC, AND POLITICAL FUTURE OF MANKIND THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE 21ST CENTURY ARE DEVELOPED IN A TEXT BASED ON THE ANALYTICAL DISCIPLINE OF FORECASTING.
Abstract
THE BOOK IS DIRECTED TO SCHOLARS DOING RESEARCH IN 'FUTURE STUDIES'; TO CORPORATE AND GOVERNMENT PLANNERS, ANALYSTS, AND ADVISORS; AND TO POLITICIANS. IT OPENS WITH AN EXAMINATION OF METHODOLOGICAL ISSUES--WAYS OF CLASSIFYING FORECASTS (CONSERVATIVE VS. RADICAL, QUALITATIVE VS. QUANTITATIVE, SUBJECTIVE VS. OBJECTIVE), AND THE DYNAMICS OF CHANGE (GROWTH FUNCTIONS, ACCELERATORS AND BRAKES, THE ROLE OF CRISIS IN HUMAN AFFAIRS). FOCUSING PRIMARILY ON THE UNITED STATES, SUBSEQUENT CHAPTERS OFFER A GLOBAL ASSESSMENT OF THE PAST, PRESENT, AND FUTURE IN TERMS OF FIVE 'MEASURES OF MAN' (SOCIOPOLITICAL, INTERNATIONAL, DEMOGRAPHIC/MACROECONOMIC, MICROECONOMIC, AND TECHNOLOGICAL) AND ONE MEASURE OF THE ENVIRONMENT (NATURAL RESOURCES). MAJOR QUALITATIVE AND QUANTITATIVE TRENDS VISIBLE OR LIKELY TO EMERGE ALONG EACH OF THESE DIMENSIONS ARE EXPLORED. UNRESOLVED INTELLECTUAL ISSUES ARE IDENTIFIED AND EXAMINED FROM THE PERSPECTIVES OF COMPETING VIEWS. PARTICULAR ATTENTION IS DIRECTED TO AREAS IN WHICH THE BALANCE OF FORCES SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF MAJOR CRISES (BUT WITH HIGHLY UNCERTAIN OUTCOMES). THE ELEMENT OF UNCERTAINTY IS ILLUSTRATED IN THREE ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS: (1) A WORLD ENERGY CRISIS IN THE MID-1980'S, ARISING FROM A SERIES OF UNTOWARD CIRCUMSTANCES AND POLICY BLUNDERS; (2) A WORLD FOOD CRISIS IN THE MID-1980'S, WITH ECOCATASTROPHIES LEADING TO MASS STARVATION IN SOUTHEAST ASIA AND AFRICA; AND (3) THE UNITED STATES' WITHDRAWAL INTO ISOLATIONISM, UNCONTROLLED NUCLEAR PROLIFERATION THROUGHOUT THE WORLD, AND POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC CRISES IN COMMUNIST COUNTRIES (1980-2012). THE IMPLICATIONS OF EACH PROJECTED SCENARIO FOR AMERICAN SOCIETY, INCLUDING THE LEGAL SYSTEM, ARE DISCUSSED. IT IS CONCLUDED THAT DEMOCRATIC GOVERNMENT WILL SURVIVE INTO THE 21ST CENTURY ONLY IF CITIZENS TAKE A FAR MORE ACTIVE ROLE THAN THEY HAVE TAKEN TO DATE. SUPPORTING DATA, LISTS OF REFERENCES, AND AN INDEX ARE PROVIDED. (LKM)