NCJ Number
190877
Date Published
2000
Length
19 pages
Annotation
This chapter examined the assumption that current trends were leading to an increase in the number of terrorist groups that were capable of using weapons of mass destruction (WMD).
Abstract
The two principal trends are the steadily increasing lethality of terrorist attacks and the growth of religious terrorism. Causal links are frequently drawn between the two, because religious terrorists are considered to be more prone to engage in acts of indiscriminate violence. It is feared that this trend will lead to the increasing use of nuclear, biological, and chemical (NBC) weapons. Previously, there has been a general aversion among most terrorist groups to causing mass casualties because of fears that such attacks would undermine political support, raise the risk of governmental reprisal, and because such attacks did not make it easier for terrorists to achieve their aims. The terrorist acts of the 1990's, such as the bombings of the World Trade Center and the Alfred P. Murrah building, were important because of the number of casualties involved, the underlying intent, the political impact, and the symbolic value. A common link between the majority of incidents involving fatalities exceeding 100 is religion. Religious extremism has now become the most serious issue regarding international terrorism. The rise in lethality of religiously derived violence is primarily linked to the growth of Islamic fundamentalist groups. Religious terrorists engage in more lethal attacks because they perceive violence to be a divine duty executed in direct response to some theological demand. Despite the large number of cases that linked terrorists to NBC weapons, only a small proportion of them actually led to the use of an NBC weapon. However, the frequency and lethality of future attacks cannot be gauged with any certainty from these trends. 31 notes