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Trends and Patterns in Crime: Past, Present, and Future

NCJ Number
196196
Date Published
2000
Length
192 pages
Annotation
This compilation and revision of materials presented at the Bureau of Justice Assistance's "Justice in the New Millennium" regional conferences in 2000 examines trends and patterns in crime nationwide and in the five geographic regions designated by the Bureau of Justice Assistance, State and Local Assistance Division.
Abstract
In preparation for the regional conferences, existing datasets were identified, explored, collated, and assessed for crime, arrests, demographic projections, and social issues. These data were organized so that similar presentations could be made at regional conferences, tailoring data to the specific region and the jurisdictions comprising it. The objective of this effort was to provide a summary view of the past trends or patterns related to violent crime and drug use and comments on future trends or patterns. For each of the regional presentations, crime and arrest data were used to describe the nature and extent of the problem, and demographic data were used to describe projected changes in the jurisdictions. The data analysis indicates that violent crime in the United States is lower than it has been in many years. Most States have shared in the decline in violent crime in recent years. An analysis of trends in crime, however, indicates that there are States that have not participated in the same levels of decline and still have unusually high rates of violent crime. The jurisdictions with the highest average violent crime rates from 1996 through 1998 were the District of Columbia, Florida, South Carolina, New Mexico, Maryland, Louisiana, Illinois, California, Tennessee, and Nevada. Data on particular violent crimes are broken down by State, including murder, rape, robbery, and aggravated assault. Given that drug treatment data are apparently a better source of information on the nature and extent of drug use and abuse than arrest data, drug treatment data are presented for each State by drug category. Data indicate that the Western United States has experienced a significant influx of stimulant abuse. Demographic changes and patterns are projected for regions and States, accompanied by crime projections expected to correlate with demographic changes in each region. Extensive graphic and tabular data and 15 references