NCJ Number
197358
Journal
Jane's Intelligence Review Volume: 14 Issue: 10 Dated: October 2002 Pages: 8-12
Date Published
October 2002
Length
5 pages
Annotation
This article reviews the findings of a survey of counterterrorist professionals concerning Al-Qaeda and the possibility of future threats.
Abstract
During July and August of 2002, Jane’s Intelligence Review surveyed counterterrorist professionals to get their views on the Al-Qaeda network and their opinions of the likelihood of future attacks. This article summarizes the findings into several main areas. First, counterterrorist professionals agree that Al-Qaeda’s strategy involves gaining acceptability among other Islamic groups so that it may reach its goal of creating an Islamic state. Another strategy seems to be the creation of a constant state of war between the West and Islam. Another key area discussed among counterterrorism professionals was Al-Qaeda’s current status. According to these experts, since the September 11th attacks, Al-Qaeda’s structure has become decentralized, with many regional and local structures now in place that have less unity of action. Overall, as a result of this decentralization, Al-Qaeda’s ability to carry out attacks has been hampered in the short-term. A third area of discussion related to the types of attacks that are most likely. According to the experts, attacks using conventional explosives will be the likely form of attack in the near future. They do not rule out the use of chemical, biological, radiological, or nuclear attacks within the next 10 years, however. Fourth, the survey revealed that the respondents expect an increase in Islamist-related terrorism around the world in the coming years, not just within the United States. Fifth, counterterrorism respondents identified a number of groups that pose threats to their countries. Among these groups are the Provisional Irish Republican Army (PIRA) and Hamas. The respondents also shared their views of potential future targets. They disagreed somewhat in this category. Three main arguments arose; first, that commercial and corporate facilities will be targeted. Second, that civilian populations will be targeted; and third, that symbolic targets will be chosen rather than those with the potential for mass causalities. Finally, the experts perceived a fuzzy link between organized crime and terrorism. In conclusion, they offered their advice for improvements in aviation security.