NCJ Number
121976
Date Published
1989
Length
28 pages
Annotation
This analysis of terrorism and its impacts on policing focuses on forecasting political terrorism in the next decade and identifies the challenges that terrorism is likely to pose for police forces in the year 2000.
Abstract
Terrorist groups can be grouped into the following five categories, each with different objectives: anarchist, ideological, insurgent, nationalist/separatist, and State. In addition, most societies have experienced some form of political terrorism since 1945. Moreover, groups engaged in conflict are likely to continue to use it if it appears to be an effective means of achieving political objectives, so terrorism will probably continue in its current patterns during the next decade. Terrorists will also probably continue their past patterns of being imitative rather than innovative in tactics. Thus, changes will tend to be incremental rather than dramatic. However, changes in technology, the hardening of targets, and the numbing of public attitudes toward terrorists may result in increasingly violent events and a continuation of the trend in the 1980's toward increased attacks on people rather than on property. Although Canada is not exempt from global trends, its relative geographic isolation and its noncontroversial international policies make it likely that it will continue to experience terrorism as a spillover from other nation's problems rather than becoming a major direct target. Nevertheless, Canadian police should stay informed about terrorism, maintain an intelligence role, and maintain close contact with its emigrant communities. 60 reference notes.