Survey of Future Developments in Criminality for the Netherlands

• NCJ Number: 75631
• Author(s): C I Dessaur; L Moor
• Date Published: 1979
• Length: 12 pages
• Sale Source: National Institute of Justice/
• Language: English
• Country: Netherlands
• Note: *This document is currently unavailable from NCJRS. Paper presented at the Conference on Cross Cultural Research of the Research Committee for the Sociology and Social Control of the International Sociological Association, The Hague, Netherlands, August 30-31, 1979

Annotation

Future development of crime in the Netherlands is predicted using statistics on officially reported crime.

Abstract

Analysis suggests that in the next 25 years there will be a relative increase in ideologically motivated offenses relative to ordinary offenses, implying an increase in offenses against public order and authority. The criminal justice system will come under increased pressure and public scrutiny. At the same time, the number of convictions for crimes against life and person will continue to decline, although such crimes will increase in seriousness. in addition, crimes against property will remain the most common form of offense, largely due to a growth stagnation and frustrated individual ambitions. The number of crimes against sexual morality will continue to decline, the number of convictions for destroying property will remain constant, and the rate of criminal behavior in people under 18 years old will continue to rise. Although the risk of victimization in serious crimes will remain small, the fear of crime is not likely to drop. As a result of intensive investigations, detailed information, and innovations, crime may take on new forms. Certain behavior may be criminalized by new laws (e.g., in the field of ecology) or by intensified prosecution of certain types of offenses, such as white-collar crimes. New offenses may also be generated by technological innovations, such as the development of data retrieval systems, and by terrorist activities due to the democratization of violence. Terrorist activities in particular are expected to continue, and the public will probably not be willing to sacrifice the legal security and privacy which would be the cost of sufficient protection against terrorism. Six references are supplied.