NCJ Number
87437
Date Published
1977
Length
17 pages
Annotation
This discussion of strategies in crime futurology considers general strategies for studying the future, futures research and crime, and choosing a research strategy and tactics for crime futurology.
Abstract
Strategies for thinking about the future can be described in terms of their time frame or their orientation. Along the time-frame axis in a matrix, future thinking can be distinguished as short-term forecasting (1-3 years), where the analyst assumes knowledge of a set of definable causal relations between events through which their future states can be predicted; long-range thinking (5-10 years), where there may be no agreed-upon goal or consensus on general direction, but there is a recognition of the necessity for examining alternative future developments; and future studies (25 years and beyond), an open-ended process not constrained by past or existing conditions or events. On the other axis of the matrix, types of approaches to futures research can be distinguished by orientation: (1) the descriptive approach, attempting to characterize possible future developments; (2) the exploratory approach, focusing more on the systematic extrapolation of past and present developments into the future; and (3) the prescriptive approach, dealing more explicitly with values than the other two orientations. Most studies in crime futures has focused on the short-term and future studies. The proposed research strategy and tactics is that of 'exploratory long-range thinking.' The proposed approach identifies three classes of factors that together influence the future of criminal justice: 'policy-insensitive' factors (e.g., demographic and attitudinal), variables influencing criminal justice that are highly sensitive to public policy made by noncriminal justice agencies, and variables sensitive to criminal justice policy.