NCJ Number
59134
Journal
Accident Analysis and Prevention Volume: 8 Dated: (1976) Pages: 51-66
Date Published
1976
Length
16 pages
Annotation
THE PROGRAMS WERE EVALUATED BY COMPARING MOTOR VEHICLE CRASH FATALITIES IN A NUMBER OF COMMUNITIES WITH SUCH PROGRAMS IN SIMILAR COMMUNITIES WITH NO PROGRAMS. PROGRAM EFFECTIVENESS WAS NOT FOUND.
Abstract
EXCESSIVE USE OF ALCOHOL IS INVOLVED IN MORE THAN ONE-HALF OF ALL MOTOR VEHICLE-RELATED FATALITIES IN THE UNITED STATES. IN 1969 THE DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION INITIATED A COMPREHENSIVE PROGRAM INTENDED TO REDUCE ALCOHOL-RELATED HIGHWAY DEATHS AND INJURIES. THE MOST AMBITIOUS COMPONENTS OF THE PROGRAM ARE THE ALCOHOL SAFETY ACTION PROJECTS (ASAPS), CONDUCTED AT THE COMMUNITY LEVEL. THE MAJOR GOALS OF THE ASAPS ARE TO DEMONSTRATE THE FEASIBILITY AND PRACTICALITY OF A SYSTEMS APPROACH FOR DEALING WITH THE DRUNK-DRIVING PROBLEM AND TO DEMONSTRATE THAT THIS APPROACH CAN SAVE LIVES, TO EVALUATE THE INDIVIDUAL COUNTERMEASURES WITHIN THE LIMITS PERMITTED BY THE SIMULTANEOUS APPLICATION OF A NUMBER OF DIFFERENT COUNTERMEASURES AT THE SAME SITE, AND TO CATALYZE EACH STATE INTO ACTION TO IMPROVE ITS SAFETY PROGRAM IN THE AREA OF ALCOHOL SAFETY. A TOTAL OF 35 LOCAL ASAPS HAVE BEEN STARTED AT AN AVERAGE COST OF MORE THAN $2 MILLION EACH. THE ACTIVE DURATION OF AN ASAP IS 3 YEARS. THE DESIGN EMPLOYED IN THIS STUDY EVALUATES ASAP EFFECTIVENESS BY COMPARING YEAR-TO-YEAR VARIATIONS IN FATALITY STATISTICS BETWEEN GROUPS OF AREAS WITH ASAPS AND COMPARISON GROUPS WITHOUT ASAPS. THE 28 ASAPS AREAS THAT ARE INCLUDED IN THIS STUDY WERE EXAMINED IN 13 GROUPS--5 GROUPS WERE FORMED FROM THE 8 ASAPS THAT BEGAN IN 1971 AND 8 GROUPS WERE FORMED FROM THE 20 ASAPS THAT BEGAN IN 1972. THE BASIC STATISTIC USED IN THIS ANALYSIS WAS A PROPORTION, CALCULATED BY DIVIDING THE NUMBER OF FATALITIES IN EACH ASAP AREA IN A YEAR BY THE COMBINED NUMBER OF FATALITIES IN THE ASAP AND COMPARISON AREAS FOR THAT YEAR. THIS PROPORTION WOULD NOT CHANGE SYSTEMATICALLY FROM YEAR TO YEAR IF CHANGES IN THE ASAP AND COMPARISON AREA FATALITIES WERE COMPARABLE. ANALYSIS RESULTS SHOW THAT THERE IS NO EVIDENCE OF A DECLINE IN THE TOTAL NUMBER OF FATALITIES IN ANY OF THE COMMUNITIES EXAMINED THAT COULD BE ATTRIBUTED TO ASAP PROGRAMS. IN VIEW OF THE RESULTS OF THE SEVERAL DETAILED ANALYSES PRESENTED IN THIS PAPER, AND IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY EVIDENCE OF AN OVERALL REDUCTION IN FATALITIES, IT IS ONLY POSSIBLE TO CONCLUDE SCIENTIFICALLY THAT ASAPS, AS LARGE SCALE SOCIAL PROGRAMS, HAVE BEEN INEFFECTIVE. GRAPHS, STATISTICAL DATA, REFERENCES, AND AN APPENDIX ARE INCLUDED. (PRG)