SIGNAL DETECTABILITY THEORY AND THE EVALUATION OF PREDICTION TABLES

• NCJ Number: 43110
• Journal: Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency Volume: 14 Issue: 2 Dated: (JULY 1977) Pages: 237-246
• Author(s): D M FERGUSSON; J K FIFIELD; S W SLATER
• Date Published: 1977
• Length: 10 pages
• Corporate Author: National Council on Crime and Delinquency
• Publication Format: Article
• Publication Type: Statistics
• Language: English
• Country: United States of America

Annotation

THIS MATHEMATICAL PAPER APPLIES THE THEORY OF SIGNAL DETECTABILITY (TSD), DEVELOPED FOR ELECTRICAL ENGINEERING, TO STUDIES ATTEMPTING TO PREDICT CRIMINAL BEHAVIOR.

Abstract

AFTER AN IN-DEPTH EXPLANATION OF TSD AND ITS USE IN THE STUDY OF COMMUNICATION BETWEEN INFORMATION SOURCES AND RECEIVERS OVER NOISY CHANNELS, ITS POSSIBLE APPLICATION IN CRIMINOLOGY IS EXPLORED. TSD IS USED TO DETERMINE A LIKELIHOOD RATIO, IN THIS CASE A LIKELIHOOD THAT A CERTAIN SET OF VARIABLES WILL RESULT IN CRIMINAL BEHAVIOR. THIS IS DONE THROUGH A RECEIVER OPERATING CHARACTERISTICS CURVE, WHICH INCORPORATES THE EFFECTS OF DIFFERENT DECISION RULES ON A PREDICTION TABLE. APPLICATION OF THIS THEORY TO A STUDY OF YOUNG OFFENDERS IN NEW ZEALAND IS DETAILED. IN RETROSPECT, USE OF TSD THEORY WOULD HAVE GIVEN THE SAME RESULTS AS WERE ACTUALLY OBTAINED OVER THE 7 YEARS OF THE ACTUAL STUDY. IT IS SUGGESTED THAT TSD HAS GOOD PREDICTIVE POSSIBILITIES.