NCJ Number
206497
Journal
The British Journal of Criminology Volume: 44 Issue: 2 Dated: March 2004 Pages: 276-283
Date Published
March 2004
Length
8 pages
Annotation
This study examined the seasonality of burglary and thefts in Hong Kong.
Abstract
Criminological research has long studied the relationship between crime and season. Results among these studies vary and most of the research was conducted in temperate regions. Little is known about crime seasonality in other climates. In addition to examining the seasonality of burglary and thefts in Hong Kong, the current study also probed whether Cohen and Felson’s (1979) routine activity (RA) theory can account for property crime seasonality in this country. RA theory asserts that a crime is the result of the convergence of a motivated offender, a suitable target, and the absence of capable guardians. Climate condition is thus the environmental factor that brings the offender and the victim into contact. The hypothesis states that property crime rates (burglary and theft) will peak in the winter months. Monthly property crime data were obtained from the Hong Kong Police Department for the years 1991 through 2000. The regression analysis relied on dummy variables to test for the existence of winter peaks. Results indicated that burglary, total theft, and shop theft rates were highest in January, while snatching and pickpocketing rates were highest in the summer months with a peak in June. Results of ANOVA analysis confirm the existence of seasonality for shop theft, snatching, and pickpocketing, but not for burglary and total theft. As such, RA theory was not able to account for the crime situation in Hong Kong. Future directions for research include comparative studies for testing various criminological theories. Figures, tables, references