NCJ Number
191078
Date Published
2001
Length
30 pages
Annotation
This paper discusses the reliability of consensus and actuarial models of risk assessment in child protective services.
Abstract
In consensus-based systems, workers assess specific client characteristics identified by the consensus judgment of experts and then exercise their own clinical judgment about the risk of future abuse or neglect. Actuarial systems are based on an empirical study of child protective services cases and future abuse/neglect outcomes. Variance among raters in the risk level assigned to cases was evident in each of the systems examined. The paper concludes that the primary issue facing child protection centers on decision making; decisions regarding children's safety varied significantly from worker to worker. As a consequence, actions taken were often inappropriate, and sometimes completely indefensible. Child protection workers were asked to make extremely difficult decisions with very little guidance or training. Their actions were rarely monitored, data on program effectiveness were not available, and computer technology was virtually nonexistent. Case decisions were based on the expertise, education, intuition, and biases of individual workers. Until valid, reliable decision support systems are fully used, debate over which programs and strategies work is fruitless. Notes, references, figures