NCJ Number
132929
Date Published
1989
Length
79 pages
Annotation
This review of research in Great Britain and North America concludes that recidivism prediction for mentally ill offenders is more reliable if based on an actuarial basis than if based on clinical judgment alone and that patterns of prior offending form the best basis for predicting the nature and frequency of future criminality.
Abstract
The review focused on violent or dangerous behavior of mentally ill offenders after discharge from psychiatric hospitals. The analysis showed that prior offending history, age, and the immediate offense are the most important characteristics in predicting recidivism. Other factors that have some influence are psychiatric diagnosis, family and employment stability, and some personality traits that can be objectively assessed. Combining clinical and statistical prediction methods offers a promising approach to prediction. Further research is also recommended to overcome the methodological weaknesses of existing studies. Appended tables, list of other Home Office research reports, and 133 references