NCJ Number
121484
Journal
Security Management Volume: 33 Issue: 9 Dated: (September 1989) Pages: 195-198
Date Published
1989
Length
4 pages
Annotation
This article explains the potential benefits of quantitative analysis in loss prevention and demonstrates how the use of a simple mathematical model can be integrated into an existing loss-prevention program and how quantitative approaches can help management counter dishonest employees.
Abstract
A quantitative approach to analyzing employee theft minimizes guesswork and provides a reliable starting point for strategic planning. Once a concept is validated, it is eligible for adoption as policy. The example of quantitative analysis applied in this article involved internally generated shortages in a retail environment. The data were obtained from a department store's daily reported cash sales and shortages over a 24-week period. A shortage was considered a theft if an employee admission was obtained or no other basis for the shortage could be determined by a trained and experienced loss-prevention auditor. The model determined that cash shortages occurred predictably with an accuracy of 94 percent for 87 percent of the outcomes regressed. The independent variables' relation to the dependent variable was characteristic of a logarithmic (gradually sloping line) function, and a 1 percent change in cash volume resulted in a .87 percent change in cash shortages. The independent variables, cash volume and registers in operation, influenced cash shortages to the greatest extent.