On Recidivism - Exploring Its Properties as a Measure of Correctional Effectiveness

• NCJ Number: 75565
• Author(s): M D Maltz
• Date Published: 1981
• Length: 267 pages
• Grant Number(s): 77-NI-99-0073
• Sponsoring Agency: US Dept of Justice; US Dept of Justice NIJ Pub
• Corporate Author: University of Illinois, Chicago Circle
• Sale Source: National Institute of Justice/
• Publication Type: Report (Study/Research)
• Language: English
• Country: United States of America

Annotation

This report focuses on clarifying the concept of recidivism for the purpose of making its definition and analysis more precise.

Abstract

Information was gathered from correctional officials in 11 States. In addition, various agencies throughout the country provided data for testing the methods explored. The research effort was motivated by the failure of correctional programs to rehabilitate offenders. However, this lack of success may be based on inadequate research on offender rehabilitation rather than on the programs themselves. Previous studies indicate that the analytic methods used in evaluating correctional programs and in measuring relevant behavioral phenomenon are limited. The first half of this report addressed definitional problems and resulted in the development of a preliminary taxonomy of recidivism definitions so that studies using dissimilar definitions would not be considered comparable. Carefully designed experiments focusing on recidivism are still useful in making limited inferences about program effectiveness. However, a State which places 10 percent of its convicted offenders on probation cannot be compared with a State that is closing prisons. For these reasons, measurement of recidivism per se is not a satisfactory means of assessing program effectiveness. To illustrate this point, various studies are discussed to demonstrate how methodological considerations can have a major effect on conclusions. Other factors that affect the conclusions of a correctional evaluation are the characteristics of the jurisdiction in which the study takes place (e.g., variations in the criminal laws). The report further explores why a specific family of recidivism models is preferred for evaluation. These models are used to estimate parameters of the recidivism process, and the estimation procedure is then used to analyze a number of different correctional programs. Limitations of the analytic methods employed are then discussed. Graphs, tables and about 200 references are included. Appendixes provide statistical data on the 'critical time' model of releasee behavior and graphic illustrations of likelihood functions using Uniform Parole Report data.