This article reports the findings and methodology of a randomized controlled trial of differing policing strategies at “hot spots” of violent crime in Jacksonville, Florida.
Focusing police efforts on “hot spots” has gained acceptance among researchers and practitioners; however, little rigorous evidence exists on the comparative effectiveness of different hot spots strategies. To address this gap, the current study randomly assigned 83 hot spots of violence in Jacksonville to receive either a problem-oriented policing (POP) strategy, directed-saturation patrol, or a control condition for 90 days. The study then examined crime in these areas during the intervention period and a 90-day post-intervention period. The study found that the use of POP was associated with a 33-percent reduction in “street violence” during the 90 days following the intervention. Although not statistically significant, the study observed that POP was associated with other non-trivial reductions in violence and property crime during the post-intervention period. In contrast, the study did not find statistically significant crime reductions for the directed-saturation patrol group, although there were non-significant declines in crime in these areas during the intervention period. Tests for displacement or a diffusion of benefits provided indications that violence was displaced to areas near the POP locations. Some patterns in the data suggest this may have been due to the effects of POP on crime reporting by citizens in nearby areas. This article concludes with a discussion of the study’s limitations and the implications of the findings for efforts to refine hot spots policing. (publisher abstract modified)