NCJ Number
196639
Journal
Law and Human Behavior Volume: 26 Issue: 4 Dated: August 2002 Pages: 377-394
Date Published
August 2002
Length
18 pages
Annotation
This study assesses long-term violence risk among forensic patients.
Abstract
The Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (VRAG) estimates the probability that a male offender will be arrested and charged with a subsequent violent offense. The VRAG comprises 12 items involving the systematic assessment of such behaviors as conning, lying, manipulation, callousness, lack of remorse, proneness to boredom, shallow affect, irresponsibility, impulsivity, poor behavior controls, criminal versatility, juvenile delinquency, sexual promiscuity, and parasitic lifestyle. There have been few published replications of the VRAG in the prediction of violent recidivism among mentally disordered offenders or forensic patients. A survey of 467 forensic patients, who were all insanity acquittees and persons unfit to stand trial, was conducted. There were three study variables. The first was coded from patients’ institutional files. The second reflected the clinical needs of the patient. The third variable pertained to each patient’s supervisory needs. Results show that the accuracy of the VRAG in the prediction of violent recidivism was high. The obtained rates of violent recidivism for 16 male subsamples did not differ significantly from the rates predicted based on the published norms. VRAG scores were unrelated to violent recidivism for the small number of female patients, and the female patients obtained low VRAG scores. The results replicated the generally observed superiority of actuarial methods, in the form of VRAG scores, over clinical judgments in a population of forensic psychiatric patients. 57 references