NCJ Number
143304
Date Published
1985
Length
37 pages
Annotation
Projections of future trends in child abuse and juvenile delinquency, useful in planning capacity changes for the juvenile justice system, indicate that juvenile crime rates per capita will probably remain at current levels or even decline over the next 10 to 15 years.
Abstract
The analysis shows that current juvenile justice case processing practices vary widely among jurisdictions and that future capacity requirements will be influenced by social values and the volume and nature of juvenile crime and child abuse. About 85 percent of arrests of youth under 18 years of age involve teenagers between 13 and 17 years. The size of this group peaked in 1974 and has declined steadily since. By 1990, this group will have 5 million less than in 1974 but will increase thereafter through the year 2000. Trends in youth crime and child abuse show rapidly increasing juvenile arrest rates per capita during the 1965- 1971 period and more or less constant arrest rates between 1971 and 1983. The per capita rate of court referrals for child abuse and neglect cases was roughly constant for 30 years but rose markedly after 1980. Trends in conditions under which children are raised and educated in the United States indicate that continuing deterioration in family life does not necessarily predict increasing levels of pathology among youth. Given this evidence, it is concluded that juvenile crime rates per capita may remain at current levels or even decline over the next 10 to 15 years. No effort is made to project the incidence of serious child abuse and neglect cases. The processing of juvenile delinquency and child abuse and neglect cases is examined. 21 references, 6 notes, 11 tables, and 1 figure