NCJ Number
95286
Date Published
1981
Length
30 pages
Annotation
Age, period, and cohort models appear superior to projections that do not use cohorts; they make more thorough use of the data and retain historical information that is not usually included in ordinary time-series analysis.
Abstract
Uniform Crime Reports arrest data for individuals aged 15 to 24 were analyzed, and arrests by single year for persons aged 11 to 24 and 25 to 64 were interpolated. The increase in crime volume in the 1960's and 1970's resulted from changes in the age distribution of the population as well as a change in period factors that lead to more criminal activity. Dramatic changes in crime are predicted as a result of changes in entering cohorts. These cohorts will be smaller and less prone to criminal behavior. As a result, future crime trends will continue to reflect the aging of 'baby boom' cohorts. On the average, criminals will tend to be older and more experienced than in the past. The aging of the criminal population will be most pronounced for violent crimes, because the age pattern of violent crimes extends the influence of the 'baby boom' cohorts longer than the age pattern for property crimes. Twenty-nine references, three tables, and four figures are included.