NCJ Number
25169
Journal
Journal of Criminal Justice Volume: 2 Issue: 1 Dated: (SPRING 1974) Pages: 19-35
Date Published
1974
Length
17 pages
Annotation
THE DELPHI FORECASTING TECHNIQUE WAS UTILIZED TO ASSESS THE GENERAL DIRECTION AND MAGNITUDE OF BROAD FUTURE TRENDS IN THE OCCUPATIONALLY-RELATED VALUES OF POLICE OFFICERS.
Abstract
THE DELPHI FORECASTING TECHNIQUE IS BASED ON THE HYPOTHESIS THAT A SUFFICIENTLY LARGE NUMBER OF ANONYMOUSLY CONTRIBUTED EXPERT OPINIONS WILL, WHEN CONSIDERED TOGETHER, PRODUCE A RELIABLE INDICATOR OF FUTURE TRENDS. TWO PANELS OF EXPERTS WERE ESTABLISHED AND UTILIZED IN THE DELPHI PROCESS: ONE COMPOSED OF VETERAN POLICE OFFICERS AND THE OTHER CONSISTING OF LAW ENFORCEMENT EDUCATORS, TOP ECHELON POLICE ADMINISTRATORS, ATTORNEYS AND SOCIAL ETHICISTS. TWO MAJOR TRENDS EMERGED IN THE COURSE OF THE STUDY: A MOVEMENT TOWARD PROFESSIONALIZATION AND A MOVEMENT TOWARD UNIONIZATION. THESE TWO MOVEMENTS WERE FOUND TO EMBODY GENERALLY CONFLICTING SETS OF OCCUPATIONALLY-RELATED VALUES. THE INCREASING EMPHASIS OF POLICE CHIEFS AND THEIR ADMINISTRATORS ON MANAGERIAL EFFICIENCY WAS IDENTIFIED AS THE CRITICAL FACTOR INFLUENCING THE FUTURE OF THESE TRENDS. (AUTHOR ABSTRACT MODIFIED)