Probation Absconders: A Unique Risk Group?

• NCJ Number: 204720
• Journal: Journal of Criminal Justice Volume: 32 Issue: 2 Dated: March/April 2004 Pages: 137-150
• Author(s): Roni Mayzer; M. Kevin Gray; Sheila Royo Maxwell
• Date Published: March 2004
• Length: 14 pages
• Publication Format: Article
• Publication Type: Report (Study/Research)
• Language: English
• Country: United States of America

Annotation

This study compared the characteristics of probation absconders with those of offenders who successfully completed probation as well as offenders whose probation was revoked for probation violations other than absconding.

Abstract

Data for the study came from a larger study of probation recidivism in Michigan. Offenders committed to probation in February and March of 1996 were randomly sampled from a Department of Corrections' database that contained demographic and offense information for all probationers sentenced during the time period. The final status of probationers was identified from probation case files. The sample consisted of 1,157 offenders; 609 completed probation successfully; 456 were revoked from probation and sent back to jail/prison; and 92 absconded. Probationers who violated probation orders by repeatedly failing to report for meetings with probation officers, ultimately leading to loss of contact, were coded as absconders. A multivariate analysis of variance was used to examine mean group differences for the following analytical models: criminal history model (prior felonies, prior misdemeanors, offense severity, and age at first arrest); conditions of probation model (length of sentence, supervision level, and number of requirements); and stakes in conformity model (years of education, employment stability, number of dependents, and residential instability). The study found that absconders and revoked probationers generally presented the least favorable risk profiles, but they did not differ significantly from one another in probation conditions, "stakes in conformity," or prior felonies; however, revoked probationers had more misdemeanors and a younger age of onset for officially recorded crime. Combined with the violation behaviors of absconders while on probation, the similarities with revoked probationers suggests a strong probability of being revoked to prison had absconders remained under supervision. Employment, recorded address changes, and lower supervision burden on offenders were among the best predictors of successfully completing probation compared to absconding. 7 tables, 5 notes, and 36 references