NCJ Number
215088
Date Published
July 2006
Length
28 pages
Annotation
This report presents prison population projections for England and Wales for the period July 2006 through June 2013.
Abstract
Prison population projections are offered in terms of three scenarios: High, Medium, and Low. The Medium scenario assumes the recently observed sentencing trends continue while the High and Low scenarios reflect a 1 percentage point difference in custody rates included in the Medium scenario. Prison population projections in the Medium scenario range from 79,380 in 2007 to 98,190 in 2013. Short term prison population projects indicate that the prison population in England and Wales will reach between 83,320 and 89,410 by the end of June 2009. Recent trends in sentencing and prison population indicate that the prison population has significantly increased during the past decade, rising from 51,080 inmates in June 1995 to 76,190 inmates in June 2005. As of June 2006, the prison population reached 77,980 inmates, a 2.4 percent increase from the previous year. Rising prison population rates are indicative of rising custody rates in England and Wales, which increased from 18.1 percent in 1994 to 27.8 percent in 2004. Factors that were considered as impacting the prison population trends included sentencing behavior, changes in legislation, changes in administrative practice, and changes in criminal justice activities. Factors influencing sentencing trends that were considered were court custody rates and the average sentence length. The analysis further considered that the impact of sentencing trends depended on a reduction in crime rates and an increase in police arrest rates that reflected the crime reduction targets. It is noted that the population projects can fluctuate between 2 to 3 percent of the estimated figures due to variation in the statistical modeling technique. Tables, charts, footnotes, references, annex