PRISON POPULATION AND POLICY CHOICES, V 2 - TECHNICAL APPENDIX

• NCJ Number: 44357
• Author(s): P CAINES; F G GREBER; R LEVINE; W A SHAFFER; B SMITH
• Date Published: 1977
• Length: 179 pages
• Contract Number(s): J-LEAA-018-77
• Sponsoring Agency: US Dept of Justice; US Dept of Justice NIJ Pub
• Corporate Author: Abt Associates, Inc
• Sale Source: National Institute of Justice/
• Publication Type: Statistics
• Language: English
• Country: United States of America

Annotation

THE METHODOLOGY EMPLOYED FOR SURVEYING CORRECTIONS AGENCIES AND INSTITUTIONS IS SUMMARIZED AND AN OUTLINE OF A MARKOV MODELING EXERCISE TO BE APPLIED IN PHASE II IS PRESENTED.

Abstract

AN OVERVIEW OF THE DYNAMIC CORRECTIONAL PLANNING MODEL, WHICH UTILIZES THE METHODOLOGY OF SYSTEM DYNAMICS, IS PRESENTED. THE APPLICATIONS OF THE MODEL IN THE POLICE, COURT, SENTENCING, CORRECTIONS, AND PRISON CAPACITY SECTORS ARE DISCUSSED. THE VALIDATION OF THE CORRECTIONAL PLANNING MODEL, THE METHOD USED TO SURVEY CORRECTIONS AGENCIES AND INSTITUTIONS, AND RESULTS OF THE DYNAMIC MODELING EXERCISE AND OF THE POLICY-BLIND PROJECTIONS ARE DESCRIBED. THE MARKOV MODEL, A STATISTICAL MODEL OF THE FLOW OF PERSONS THROUGH THE CRIMINAL JUSTICE SYSTEM, IS INTRODUCED. WHEN COMPLETED IT WILL PRODUCE PROJECTIONS OF THE FUTURE AVERAGE LEVELS OF PERSONS IN THE VARIOUS SECTORS OF THE CRIMINAL JUSTICE SYSTEM. IT WILL ALSO PRODUCE VARIANCES FOR THESE LEVELS. THESE VARIANCES PROVIDE A DESCRIPTION OF THE RANGE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE PROJECTED QUANTITIES. THE REPORT POINTS OUT THE CONSTRUCTION AND WEAKNESSES OF THE MARKOV MODEL. AN ATTACHMENT PRESENTS THE MARKOV CHAINS WITH FEEDBACK. FOR VOLUME I SEE NCJ - 44356.