NCJ Number
210193
Date Published
April 2005
Length
8 pages
Annotation
This report presents findings from a study on whether the predictors of the failure to appear (FTA) in New York City can also predict pretrial re-arrest.
Abstract
In New York City, the determination of whether to release pretrial defendants is based wholly on their flight risk. The assessment of flight risk is made using an objective point scale developed through research on the predictors of failure to appear (FTA). The objective of the current research was to assess whether these predictors of FTA could also be useful in predicting pretrial re-arrest. Data were drawn from 67,699 adult defendants arrested in New York City during the first quarter of 2001. Data included demographic characteristics, community ties indicators, criminal history, and charge. Results of multivariate analyses indicated that the most significant predictor of pretrial re-arrest as criminal history factors, which is consistent with previous research findings on recidivism. The demographic variables predictive of pretrial re-arrest were being male, being young, and being Black or Hispanic. Finally, all of the variables useful in predicting FTA were not useful in predicting pretrial re-arrest; more criminal history factors impacted pretrial re-arrest than pretrial FTA. Policy implications are discussed and future researchers are urged to study predictors of potential pretrial “dangerousness.” Figures