PREDICTION OF PAROLE BEHAVIOR (FROM JUSTICE AND CORRECTIONS, 1978, BY NORMAN JOHNSTON AND LEONARD D SAVITZ - SEE NCJ-47922)

• NCJ Number: 47953
• Author(s): D M GOTTFREDSON; L T WILKINS; P B HOFFMAN; S M SINGER
• Date Published: 1978
• Length: 16 pages
• Corporate Author: John Wiley and Sons, Inc.
• Publication Format: Document
• Language: English
• Country: United States of America
• Note: REPRINTED FROM THE UTILIZATION OF EXPERIENCE IN PAROLE DECISIONMAKING - SUMMARY REPORT - U S DEPARTMENT OF JUSTICE, LEAA, 1974

Annotation

THE SCOPE OF A STUDY DESIGNED TO DEVELOP, TEST, AND DEMONSTRATE PROGRAMS TO IMPROVE THE AVAILABILITY OF INFORMATION FOR PAROLE DECISIONMAKING IS DETAILED.

Abstract

WHILE THE GENERAL AIM OF THE PROJECT INVOLVED INFORMATION SYSTEMS, THE GENERAL GOALS WERE TO PROVIDE OBJECTIVE, RELEVANT INFORMATION FOR INDIVIDUAL CASE DECISIONS; TO SUMMARIZE EXPERIENCE WITH PAROLE AS AN AID TO IMPROVED POLICY DECISIONS; AND TO AID PAROLING AUTHORITIES IN MORE RATIONAL DECISIONMAKING FOR INCREASED EFFECTIVENESS OF PRISON RELEASE PROCEDURES. TWO GENERAL CLASSES OF DECISIONS ARE MADE BY PAROLING AUTHORITIES: DECISIONS ON INDIVIDUAL PERSONS; AND DECISIONS ABOUT THEIR DECISIONS, THAT IS, PAROLING POLICY DECISIONS. THE PROJECT INCLUDED THE STUDY OF EACH OF THESE TYPES. THE PROBLEMS IN EACH INCLUDED THE IDENTIFICATION AND DEFINITION OF DECISION OBJECTIVES, OF INFORMATION ELEMENTS DEMONSTRABLY RELEVANT TO THE DECISION, OF THE AVAILABLE DECISION ALTERNATIVES, AND OF THE CONSEQUENCES OF THOSE ALTERNATIVES. THE INFORMATION PROVIDED PAROLING AUTHORITIES, IF IT IS TO BE USEFUL IN DECISIONMAKING, MUST MEET THE USUAL TESTS OF RELIABILITY AND VALIDITY. IN THIS CONTEXT, HOWEVER, THE ISSUE OF VALIDITY HINGES UPON DEFINITION OF THE OBJECTIVES OF THE DECISION. PAROLE DECISIONS ARE COMPLEX; EVEN IN A CONTEXT OF GENERAL AGREEMENT AS TO AIMS, CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT CONCERNING SPECIFIC OBJECTIVES MAY BE EXPECTED. ALSO, VARIOUS MEASUREMENT PROBLEMS WILL BE ENCOUNTERED IN SEEKING CLEAR, CONSENSUALLY VALIDATED DEFINITIONS THAT WOULD SERVE AS ANCHORING POINTS FOR THE PROGRAM. ON THE ASSUMPTION THAT A FURTHER REQUIREMENT SHOULD BE THAT THE INFORMATION FOR DECISIONMAKING MUST BE IMMEDIATELY AVAILABLE AT THE TIME OF THE DECISION, AN ON-LINE COMPUTERIZED SYSTEM FOR RETRIEVAL AND ANALYSIS OF INFORMATION FOR DECISIONS WAS DEVELOPED AND ITS USE EXPLORED. THE PROBLEMS, METHODS, AND PRELIMINARY RESULTS ARE EXAMINED WITH ATTENTION TO THE NATURE OF THE DECISION PROBLEMS, PERCEIVED GOALS AND INFORMATION NEEDS FOR INDIVIDUAL DECISIONMAKING, DEVELOPING A DATA BASE, DEVELOPING EXPERIENCE TABLES, THE PROBLEM OF OVERLAP IN EXPERIENCE TABLE CONSTRUCTION, INFORMATION SELECTION AND USE IN PAROLE DECISIONMAKING, THE USE OF AN INFORMATION RETRIEVAL SYSTEM, THE OPERATIONAL USE OF AN EXPERIENCE TABLE, AND PAROLE POLICY FEEDBACK. PAROLE POLICY GUIDELINES ARE DISCUSSED REGARDING JUSTICE AND FAIRNESS, ACTUAL USE, GUIDELINES MODIFICATION, AND IMPLICATIONS AND LIMITATIONS. THE RELIABILITY OF INFORMATION IN THE PAROLE DECISIONMAKING STUDY AND THE PRACTICAL APPLICATION OF A SEVERITY SCALE ARE ALSO DISCUSSED. NOTES ARE PROVIDED. (KBL)