NCJ Number
115977
Journal
Violence and Victims Volume: 3 Issue: 4 Dated: special issue (Winter 1988) Pages: 243-330
Editor(s)
N A Weiner
Date Published
1988
Length
88 pages
Annotation
This special issue argues that accurate predictions of interpersonal criminal violence can be made, that public policies can be based on those predictions, and that predictive decision-making is both ethical and legally justifiable.
Abstract
Individual articles in the issue focus on aspects of predicting criminal violence. One article points out that accuracy of prediction can be enhanced by accurate measures of the seriousness of crime and a clear assessment of societal stakes. Still another article proposes a theoretical framework to justify the limited use of statistical predictions, while another argues that injury from interpersonal violence can be prevented by public health surveillance, risk group identification, risk factor exploration, and program implementation and evaluation. A fourth article points out that while it is necessary and appropriate to predict violence, prediction can be made more accurate if attention is paid to issues of fundamental measurement and to base rates, selection ratios, and methods of combining predictive information.