Predicting Individual Crime Rates (From Prediction and Classification: Criminal Justice Decision Making, P 53-101, 1987, Don M. Gottfredson and Michael Tonry, eds. -- See NCJ-116250)

• NCJ Number: 116252
• Author(s): D P Farrington
• Date Published: 1987
• Length: 49 pages
• Sale Source: University of Chicago Press
• Publication Type: Issue Overview
• Language: English
• Country: United States of America
• Note: *This document is currently unavailable from NCJRS.

Annotation

This review of research on predicting individual crime rates addresses implications for penal policy, forecasting crime rates based on criminal career features, early predictors of individual crime rates, and problems arising from the practical application of prediction studies.

Abstract

A survey of research findings notes that high individual crime rates are predicted by an early age at the onset of offending, a serious first offense, and a high past crime rate. Other predictors are early antisocial behavior, convicted parents and siblings, low family income, school failure, poor employment record, and drug use. The paper contends that prediction of individual crime rate should be investigated in prospective longitudinal surveys and that predictor and criterion variables be selected on theoretical grounds rather than availability in records. Also needed is a standard index of predictive efficiency. The conclusion explores ethical, legal, and practical issues raised by the use of prediction information in criminal justice decisions. Over 100 references. (Author abstract modified)